That’s Sod’s law Rich 🙄. It really can activate at any time. Well, nearly any time, it can’t activate if 2 bees land on the same spin but perhaps they’ve fixed this now though.
I’ve had the swarm many many times, and I can tell you that most of the time I got a swarm value of between 150x and 350x. The lowest multiplier was around 20x, whereas the highest was just over 1000x. The idea of upping the stake the deeper you go is like any Martingale system. It’s fine for the most part, but when it goes wrong you get seriously stung 🐝